Implications of Startups That Exist to Maximize Abundant Social Capital Instead of Scarce Economic Capital

There is a new class of ventures emerging. They’re not focused on creating the next profitable widget. Their core purpose is about empowering people with tools, knowledge, social connections to live a better life and fulfill their dreams.

The currency of their value creation is broader than just along the economic spectrum. They are about unleashing the abundant resource of human potential and social capital.

This is a transformative departure from most organizations whose fundamental currency is economic capital. Given this, there’s bound to new ways of organizing, sharing resources, knowledge, tools and people. Social capital is fundamentally positive sum, and therefore potentially abundant, as it grows in value the more it’s used. Whereas organizations based on economic capital predominantly engage in pure quid pro quo, zero-sum exchanges of value.

I’m not sure what all the implications of this are, but I think we should try very hard to figure it out.

Here are some thoughts on why there are probably new organizational possibilities:

  • Organizations that are based on a currency that is positive sum rather than zero sum have the possibility to collaborate with others in truly new ways. If we find effective ways of sharing resources that grow the more they are used that has the potential to create exponential impact.
  • Organizations based on social capital also might be able to more easily collaborate with others on achieving complimentary aspects of mutually shared visions. With projects guided by social capital, sharing makes more sense, and there’s ways of creating mutually reinforcing value that grows the overall pie. Companies guided by an economic bottom line are incentivized to control a whole vertical themselves and treat those with similar intentions as competitors.
  • I also took a stab a few months ago at a theory called the Lego Model for how organizations might be able to achieve scale through collaboration. Lego Model. http://maxmarmer.com/2009/12/the-lego-model—-from-the-force-for-the-future-blog/
  • I think there’s a lot of potential to take many of these type of projects and create an organization similar to YCombinator but for projects centered around “unleashing human capital”.

    This consolidation and focus around a single brand could create a rising tide that lifts all of our work by focusing energy around what these new class of companies need to be successful which could include things like more effective PR, fundraising, and most importantly, collaboration. I think by bringing projects and people together in this fashion there’s an opportunity to rethink some fundamental assumptions about work, business and value creation. Experimenting with some loosely organized uniting brand allows us to begin how to build these structures in way that could accelerate the trajectory of all the projects it touches.

    This is a project my friends and I will be working on over the next year or two. If this is something that interests you, let me know.

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    Startup Musings on Markets, Pivots & Currency

  • It’s not about your vision it’s about what the market wants. Vision is not about creating something that’s beuatiful and elegant to you. Vision is about anticipating trends in markets and technology to begin solving an important problem that isn’t yet solvable or ready to be solved.
  • For any big market there are a discrete number of big opportunities. There’s usually one big opportunity, a secondary one, and then a long tail of niches.
  • People start with different assumptions and different market entry points. Depending on the strength of their vision, how well they employ customer development and listen to the market, they’ll iterate their way towards the big opportunity. As more people understand customer development we’re more likely to see more people converging on the same idea for how to solve a problem.
  • One example of this is in the social media / e-commerce space. I’ve seen some products start around sharing directly on social media, I’ve seen shopping cart social recommendations, and facebook applications. But in the end they all seem to be converging towards leveraging the psychology truth that knowing what our friends purchase creates social proof that encourages us to do the same. The solution is not a result of their fancy technology or creative marketing genius, the solution is dependent on tapping into innate human psychology.
  • Even though pivots will converge, initial hypothesis will make a big difference, because they lead to different market entry points. And some market entry points have lower activation energy allowing for faster iteration and gathering of feedback.  And even though initial hypothesis are functionally just a starting place, different starting places are situated closer to the big opportunity than others.
  • Big opportunities aren’t created they’re discovered. Opportunities become available because of timing.. At any given point in time there’s a discrete number of opportunities.The opportunity is there and just waiting for someone to find it and execute on it well. If you gather good feedback you’ll be pointed in that direction.
  • Startups whose primary currency is social capital should share their learnings with startups in the same market. This gives advantage of gleaning different insights from different market entry points. And furthers their goal of seeing the market achieved rather than being the market’s economic victor. In exchange for this sharing of knowledge they should tie their financial incentives together with startups they share.
  • In a previous post I described market evolution as follows:

    But once there are lots of teams executing on a new opportunity, most of the battle from a macroeconomic perspective has already been won, it’s just a matter of which individual player will earn the spoils (and how long they can maintain relevance before a competitor overtakes them or the market becomes commoditized). Fact is, there were many search engines and social networks before Google and Facebook. The markets they operate in were big enough that inevitably an industry giant would emerge who would be able to use the lucrativeness of the market to generate a runaway positive feedback loop up until saturation. Though not inevitable, it would be very hard for Facebook and Google to screw up and concede supremacy in their primary markets. But it is probable a new company will beat them to the new markets they try to extend to. For more on the power of markets see Marc Andressen’s post, the founder of Netscape and now Ning, on why the market is the only thing that matters and when it is big enough it will practically drag companies to a solution.

    Once the timing and conditions are ripe there will be enough people trying to tackle the clear billion dollar markets that somebody will get the execution right. The startup ecosystem is that good at providing all the puzzle pieces!

    Future billion dollar companies will ride trends such as the move to the cloud, mobile information, personalization utilizing our preferences and social graph, and new data capture enabled by the falling cost and size of sensors.

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    Byproducts: Learning from Failure and Virtues of Playing Sports

    Two more examples of byproducts. Focusing on byproducts makes you less likely to achieve them. Instead focus on what the real end goal should be.

    I recommend first reading the original post where I discussed byproducts: Why You Can’t Get More Happiness, Money and Love By Pursuing Them Directly

    Learning from Failure

    You’re first startup venture will probably fail and it will be a great learning experience that will increase your chances for being successful on your second venture. But you can’t go into that first venture with the expecation that will just be a great learning experience, because then it probably won’t even be a good learning experience, otherwise you’ll quit too early. Only if you have the unwavering irrational belief that this venture is destined to succeed will you push hard enough and long enough to learn some real lessons.

    Competitive Spirit

    Passion for athletics commanded the largest portion of my free time from the time I was 5 to the time I was 17. At some point around 13-14 I had some pretty tough injuries that were misdiagnosed with compounding lingering effects. (I’ve described that in some more depth in this post)

    At some point around 17-18 I wound down my competitive athletics commitments so I could focus on my burgeoning entrepreneurial interests. Now that I have some distance from my athletic career I can see how much I’ve gained from sports.

    The other day I was watching a Giants game and they were doing a brief promotional segment on a Giant’s sponsored program for getting more young girls involved in sports. They started listing all the virtues of playing sports, “competitive spirit, toughness, teamwork, ambition…” but hearing those traits rattled off made me want to snicker. In my experience, the only players who touted those virtues as reasons for playing weren’t very good. And the coaches who talked about those virtues to their players usually had bad teams. The good coaches and athletes focused on what they needed to do to get better, what they needed to do to win games and more importantly win championships.

    I wasn’t driven by developing toughness, or being a team player. I wanted to win, and I wanted to realize my dreams of playing professionally. But I knew winning required mental toughness and involving my teammates. And along the same lines, you don’t pitch teamwork for teamwork’s sake, you pitch teamwork because it’s required to win.

    You don’t chastise cheating, because it’s morally wrong, you don’t do it because it can hurt you chances of winning. Minor discrepenciases of what’s allowed by the rules are fine, and you have to weigh the risk/reward consequences of doing something unallowed.

    But after my urge to mock the girls baseball promotional subsided, I realized I have all those traits, and they’ve carried over to other areas of my life even though I’ve stopped playing sports 6 times a week. And while instincts and genetics deserve credit for the existence of these traits, my engagement in sports nurtured and developed these traits.

    But the reason I had such a negative visceral reaction to listing the virutes, comes down to byproducts and end goals. Teamwork, toughness, and ambition are all byproducts and by even considering them or any other byproduct as a valid end goal you make them less likely to occur.

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    Market Evolution: The Special Case When a Startup Has No Market Risk

    In this post Steve Blank urges startup founders to consider what kind of risk they face if they want to be successful. They must figure out if they face technology risk, market risk or both? But I believe the key principle to understand here is market evolution.

    In order to understand market evolution I think it’s helpful to dive a bit deeper into the special case where a startup has technology risk but no market risk, admittedly this occurs very rarely for web startups and is more likely the case for a life sciences startup. But this is still relevant for web startups because often you can gain deeper insights into an issue by understanding why something doesn’t apply than why it does.

    The first key idea is that in even in cases where there is only technology risk and no market risk, the market still evolved out of nonexistence. If you identify that there’s only technology risk and no market risk for the startup you’re working on, than that’s because the market has already formed and there’s a lot of pent up demand as a result of no one being able to satisfy the market.

    Steve Blank has classified market types a startup can be in into 3 major buckets, New, Existing and Resegemented (as niche or low cost).

    For the purpose of mapping the possibility space of markets I’d like to add two more market types to the list: at the beginning, Non existent; and at the end, saturated/commoditized.

    While new companies can’t play in non existent or saturated markets these stages are important additions to mapping the lifecycle of a market.

    So now let’s take the canonical example of something that has only technology risk: finding a cure for cancer. There is clearly no market risk because if you developed this cure now, the world would beat a path to your door.

    But while there is no market risk for cancer now, that hasn’t always been true, and it won’t always be true. The market for cancer cures, just like any market will will evolve through all these stages: nonexistent, new, existing, resegmented and saturated.

    When is the market for cancer drugs nonexistent you ask?

    For most of human history, actually. Since life expectancy has been below 40 for most of human history people died too early for cancer to have any relevance.

    And even after human life expectancy began to rise to where cancer was killing people, there was still market risk, because first we had to discover what cancer was AND EDUCATE the public about cancer, before it would be possible to sell any kind of cancer treatment, even if it was invented.

    One of the key points Steve emphasizes about new markets is that in order to grow the market, the potential customers must be educated. You can’t reliably sell someone what they don’t yet want or understand.

    But the main point I want to emphasisze is that all markets are highly dependent on timing. Markets don’t exist for most of the time and when they do there are small windows of opportunity. The only time there is no market risk is when there is clearly an existing market, evidenced by extreme demand, but there are no companies serving this market because nobody has found a solution. There is only technologically risk here, because all you have to do is make the technological breakthrough to win.

    Update: What this means for other industries

    All industries face market risk. There are just a few problems where the market has evolved and technology has not been able to meet it.

    Web tech has evolved to the point to where most applications face only market risk and no technology risk. We will eventually develop the tools and infrastructure to where new advances in the life sciences and in biotech only face market risk. The early signs of this are in Craig Venter’s research which will eventually allow us to program life in the same way we program machines. An industry transitions from facing both technology and market risk, to facing predominantly only market risk when creators stop focusing most of their energy question, “Can we even build this?” and instead focus on the efforts on the question “If we build this, will anybody want it?”

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